Mariners vs. Padres In San Diego: Pitching, series preview, analysis & predictions

Interleague Matchup

June 22-24

The Seattle Mariners head to San Diego for a second shot at the Padres to end interleague play for 2012. As fate would have it, the M’s will face the same three pitchers that swept them at home a week ago.

Pitching match ups:

Game 72: RHP – Kevin Millwood vs. LHP – Clayton Richard

Matchup | Preview

Seattle heads to sunny San Diego to take on the Padres

After the Mariners helped to improve Richard’s road stats, his next start in Oakland was one of the best of the season. What is worse is that Richard has been much better at home than on the road this season (2.72 vs 4.88 ERA).

In their last outing the M’s were only able to get 1 run on 8 hits against the 28 year old southpaw.

Left handed batters are hitting just .195 against Richard
Current Line: 4-7 / 3.94 ERA / 24 BB / 52 SO / 1.28 WHIP

Kevin Millwood pitched only 5 innings in his last start allowing 4 runs on 9 hits to the Giants. The Mariners ended up winning the game in spite of the poor start, it is my opinion that his 3-5 record is more than he deserves.

In his last two starts at Petco Field, Millwood holds an ERA of 2.08
In his last 4 starts against the Padres he is 3-1 with a 4.43 ERA

Game 73: RHP – Felix Hernandez vs. RHP – Jason Marquis

Marquis pitched a gem against Seattle last week, limiting the offense to just 6 hits. This was followed by another great performance in Texas where despite striking out 10 and holding the Rangers to just 2 runs – lost the game.

The M’s can just hope they can jump on him if he screws up.

Jesus Montero has just 6 at bats against Marquis but has 3 hits.
Marquis’ ERA against the M’s in the past 2 starts is just 0.60

Felix Hernandez has been having a strange season. One game he looks dominate, the next he seems to struggle. It seems unclear what the problem is, even his tweaked back could be the result of a poor mental status this season.

Maybe Felix finally realizes it is hard to give it your all on a team that doesn’t win.

Current Line: 4-5 / 3.52 ERA / 30 BB / 91 SO / 1.29 WHIP
Opponents are batting .248 against Felix with RISP compared to his CY Young year when they hit just .208

Game 74: RHP – Hector Noesi vs. Edison Volquez

Volques has only 3 wins in 15 starts this season and his team has managed to win only one game in his past 7 starts, which was against Seattle. He has kept his ERA under 4 at home this season, so unless the offense shows up for the M’s they could be embarrassed yet again.

Despite his record opponents are batting just .229 this season
Kevin Millwood will get the ball first against the Padres

Hector Noesi has been the subject of a lot of criticism after his last start in which he looked very unprepared. It looks as though the young pitcher is still learning the difference between throwing and pitching as he frequently gets in trouble when he is ahead in the count.

Mariners Vs. Padres Series Predictions

Game 1:

Last week the prediction was that Seattle had the edge against San Diego, but after being swept at home and their pitching staff not being able to maintain leads I call for a loss. Prediction: Loss (Mariners 0 – Padres 2)

Game 2:

Marquis may be expecting the M’s to be another easy win, but I think this is where they pull out all the stops and decide that they are not going to fall to the Padres again.

Hopefully Millwood gets the memo. Prediction: Win (Mariners 6 – Padres 4)

Game 3:

Petco is a pitchers park and I think Noesi will be motivated to do well, but Volquez is a better pitcher than he gets credit for. Prediction: Loss (Mariners 2 – Padres 3)